Introduction — From Dr. Nick & First Warn Weather

Winter 2025–2026 is shaping up to be the kind of season that keeps you on your toes. Not the quiet, quick-drive-thru kind of winter we’ve had in recent years, but one with a little more personality — the kind your grandparents talk about when they say, “Now that was a winter.”

Our atmosphere is lining up several classic ingredients at once: a weak La Niña nudging the jet stream south, a steady tug of Arctic air waiting for its moment, and a storm track that looks eager to run right across Missouri and Illinois. When all that comes together, it usually means a winter with real bite — colder stretches that feel like winter is supposed to feel, and storms that make you stop and pay attention.

This outlook takes a deep dive into what we expect from December through February: the cold spells, the storm windows, the messy transition days, and even the odds for a white Christmas. You’ll see analog years that match what the atmosphere is hinting at now, the model trends that back it up, and the region-by-region breakdown for Central Missouri, the St. Louis Metro, Southeast Missouri, and Southern Illinois.

Think of this as your guide to what’s coming — not doom and gloom, not hype, just straight talk. Winter won’t be relentless, but when it shows up this year, it’ll matter. And as always, First Warn Weather will be here tracking every shift, every storm, and every surprise Mother Nature decides to throw our way.

Let’s look at what this winter may have in store.

The scaffolding of the season (why the atmosphere is primed to deliver a real winter)

The foundation of Winter 2025–26 begins with the broader ocean–atmosphere setup. Right now, the Pacific is in a weak La Niña, and every major modeling system — including NOAA’s CFSv2, the ECMWF seasonal model, the Canadian CanSIPS system, and Japan’s JAMSTEC model — agrees it should hold through December, January, and February. After that, it may drift toward a neutral pattern as we head into late winter and early spring.

A weak La Niña is an important distinction. Strong La Niñas shove the pattern around aggressively, but weak ones simply guide it. They tilt the jet stream south a bit, but they don’t erase the influence of other players like blocking patterns, the upper atmosphere, or tropical waves. That means this winter leaves plenty of room for short-term pattern shifts — the kind that allow meaningful cold shots and active storm tracks to develop.

In a pattern like this, the polar jet often rides across the northern United States while the subtropical jet stays active just enough to pull moisture out of the Gulf. This puts the Mid-Mississippi Valley right in the tension zone: cold air available from the north, moisture available from the southwest, and warm layers aloft that can flip snow to sleet or freezing rain with very little warning. NOAA’s long-range outlook for weak La Niña winters paints the same picture — colder and stormier to the north, mixed signals for the lower Midwest, and a lot of potential for messy winter storms exactly where we live.

What determines whether these storms become inconveniences or headline-makers is how the atmosphere behaves over North America and the North Atlantic in the weeks leading up to each event. When pressure patterns over the Arctic and North Atlantic weaken — what meteorologists describe as loosening the polar “hold” — cold air is able to spill south more easily and linger longer. If that loosened Arctic flow pairs up with a ridge over Alaska, cold air gets funneled directly into the central United States. That alignment tends to produce the classic western ridge and Midwestern trough: a cold, storm-friendly pattern that often runs several days to a couple of weeks.

Another quiet but powerful player is the stratosphere, several miles above the surface. When the stratospheric polar vortex becomes distorted or displaced, it often triggers more frequent and longer-lasting cold outbreaks about two weeks later. If we were to see a true sudden stratospheric warming event in January — something the ECMWF extended-range model and GEFS ensembles always keep an eye on — then the second half of winter would likely turn noticeably colder, with a higher risk of impactful storms.

Pull these pieces together — the weak La Niña base state, frequent opportunities for cold air to break south, a steady feed of Gulf moisture, and the potential for upper-atmospheric disruptions — and the message is clear:
This winter won’t be a nonstop deep freeze, but it will bring several periods where the atmosphere lines up just right for meaningful snow and ice, especially when shallow Arctic air meets warm, moist flow from the southwest.

The Setup – Why This Winter Means Business

• Weak La Niña will persist into early spring 2026, nudging the polar jet south and keeping the subtropical jet active enough to feed Gulf moisture.

• Negative AO / NAO phases will open the Arctic gate several times, letting deep cold spill into the Plains and Midwest.

• Negative PDO favors a ridge in the West → trough over the Central U.S., a classic cold-storm pattern for Missouri & Illinois.

• The stratospheric polar vortex already shows signs of wobbling. A sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) could mean Arctic siege afterward.

• Bottom line: a colder, stormier, snowier and icier-than-normal winter for much of the First Warn region.

The Analog Bench – What Past Winters with Similar Fingerprints Tell Us

When you forecast beyond a few weeks, you leave the world of short-range dynamics and step into the world of pattern recognition. That’s where analogs shine. They’re not perfect copies — no two winters ever are — but they reveal how the atmosphere tends to behave when the same big ingredients are on the table. And this year, the atmosphere is putting out some familiar cues.

The best analog matches for Winter 2025–2026 include 1989–90, 1993–94, 1996–97, 2000–01, 2013–14, 2016–17, and 2017–18. These years echo the pattern we’re seeing now:

• A weak La Niña or near-neutral ENSO, which encourages a south-shifted storm track.

• Repeating negative AO and NAO spells, which let Arctic air break loose from the pole and spill south.

• Periodic negative EPO episodes, which build a ridge over Alaska and carve a trough over the central U.S.

• An active storm corridor from the southern Plains through Missouri into the Ohio Valley.

Individually, each analog teaches a different lesson. Together, they paint a clear picture of what our winter may look like: colder-than-normal stretches, above-normal precipitation, and multiple snow/ice events — especially near and south of I-70.
And most importantly, these analogs cluster their biggest winter events in mid-December, mid-January, and late February — the exact same windows lighting up in this year’s modeling.

Analog Years – Our Historical Clues

Let’s break down each one.

🔹 1989–1990 — The Sharp Starter

If you like winters that don’t waste time, this one is your analog.

What happened:

• A polar vortex disruption in late November pushed true Arctic air deep into the central U.S.

• Single-digit lows showed up before December even started.

• December flipped abruptly from mild to bitter, with subfreezing highs in Missouri and Illinois.

• Snowfall wasn’t extreme, but cold persistence made every event impactful.

Why it matters this year:
This analog strongly supports your call for a colder-than-normal late November and early December, including the potential for the first measurable snow or mix near the Nov 28–Dec 6 window.

Folklore match:
Early cold often signals a winter that “starts early and ends late,” a saying that proved true in 1989–90.

🔹 1993–1994 — The Ice Maker

This year is infamous for how often precipitation froze on contact.

What happened:

• A stubborn negative NAO kept cold air locked into the Midwest for weeks at a time.

• The storm track undercuts that cold dome, producing multiple freezing-rain events.

• St. Louis logged more than a dozen freezing rain days — one of the highest totals on record.

• More sleet and ice fell than snow across much of Missouri and Southern Illinois.

Why it matters this year:
This analog warns us:
➡️ Ice could be a major storyline along and south of I-70, especially if warm layers aloft fight the surface cold.
➡️ Southeast Missouri and Southern Illinois should be on alert for possible glaze events.

Folklore match:
Thin hoarfrost in early November was historically believed to signal winter ice — and that held true in 1993–94.

🔹 1996–1997 — The Late Bloomer

Not every analog starts strong — some save their punch for later.

What happened:

• December underperformed with mild spells and limited snow.

• January turned sharply colder as blocking intensified.

• February delivered the storm: widespread 6–10″ snow across central and northeast Missouri.

• The pattern reloaded several times, creating three high-impact snow periods in six weeks.

Why it matters this year:
If December doesn’t produce a blockbuster, this analog says:
➡️ Don’t let your guard down for February.
➡️ A southern-track low in late February could produce a 6″+ heavy wet snow band from STL northward.

Folklore match:
“February brings what December promised” — a saying that perfectly described 1996–97.

🔹 2000–2001 — The Classic Missouri Winter

A textbook weak La Niña setup.

What happened:

• Regular Alberta clippers brought light snows north.

• Two southern-stream systems delivered widespread precipitation.

• Temperatures stayed below normal, but frequent thaws kept snowpack shallow.

• Central Missouri saw numerous 2–4″ snows; Southeast Missouri saw more icing.

Why it matters this year:
This analog supports a “slow-grind” winter:
➡️ Many small- to medium-sized systems instead of one mega-storm.
➡️ Persistent cold ensures most storms have at least some frozen precipitation.

Folklore match:
Frequent northwest winds in fall were once considered a sign of frequent “powder snows” — and 2000–01 delivered exactly that.

🔹 2013–2014 — The Polar Vortex Benchmark

This one made national headlines for a reason.

What happened:

• A strong negative AO/EPO pairing unleashed brutal Arctic air.

• Columbia dropped below zero nine times.

• St. Louis stayed below freezing for ten straight days in January.

• Snowfall was near normal — but the duration of cold was exceptional.

Why it matters this year:
This analog tells us:
➡️ One prolonged cold wave is very possible in January.
➡️ Subzero lows and -10° to -25° wind chills are back on the table.

Folklore match:
The “ring around the moon” omen showed up repeatedly that year and historically signals deep cold.

🔹 2016–2017 — The Glaze Storm Year

A weak La Niña year frighteningly similar to this one.

What happened:

• The infamous mid-January Missouri ice storm brought 0.5–1″ of glaze from Joplin to Farmington.

• The atmosphere stayed stuck in a cold-vs-warm tug of war for weeks.

• February flipped mild — a quick release after long blocking.

Why it matters this year:
This analog is a loud reminder:
➡️ Ice storms are absolutely in play, especially mid-January.
➡️ Warm-nose intrusions will be a recurring headache.

Folklore match:
Farmers long said a “wet and windy fall” leads to a winter ice problem — and that year proved it.

🔹 2017–2018 — The Sneaky One

Quiet early. Loud late.

What happened:

• December and early January were mild, misleading many into thinking winter was over.

• Late January cold revived the pattern.

• March produced one of the biggest snows of the season.

Why it matters this year:
➡️ The atmosphere may reload after a quiet spell.
➡️ Late February could surprise everyone — including forecasters.

Folklore match:
“If winter sleeps early, it wakes up angry.”
2017–18 was practically the poster child.

Common Threads Across the Analogs (And Why They Matter)

Temperature Patterns

Most analog years averaged 0.5 to 2°F below normal, featuring cold stretches broken by three- to five-day thaws.
Translation:
➡️ Not a nonstop freeze, but a winter with regular Arctic reloads.

Precipitation

Nearly all averaged near to slightly above normal precipitation, thanks to enhanced Gulf inflow.
Moisture will not be the limiting factor this winter.

Storm Type

A recurring mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain:

• Pure snow north of I-70

• Wintry mixes in STL

• Ice south toward Farmington, Cape, and Mt. Vernon

Season Timing

All analogs produced three major action windows:

• Mid-December

• Mid-January

• Late February

Folklore Confirmation

From persimmon spoons to woolly bears turning black, many traditional signs matched these analog winters — and many of those signs are showing up again this fall.

 Why These Analogs Matter for Winter 2025–26

Taken together, these analogs reinforce your forecast message:

• Early Winter (Nov–Dec): Cold arrives earlier than usual. First snow or ice likely before Dec 10.

• Mid-Winter (Jan): The peak of the season. Harsh cold, major storm potential, and ice threats south.

• Late Winter (Feb): One more high-impact storm, likely heavy wet snow.

These analogs don’t promise exact totals or dates — but they define the personality of the season:
 A roller-coaster pattern with real winter weather, repeat Arctic surges, and enough impactful systems to keep plows, salt trucks, schools, and commuters very, very busy.

Atmospheric Setup – The Blueprint Behind Winter 2025–2026

Before we talk snow totals, ice risks, or which week might ruin someone’s travel plans, we have to start with the big picture — the “why” behind this winter. And honestly? This year’s atmospheric setup is one of the most interesting we’ve seen in a while. It’s the kind of pattern that doesn’t just stumble into winter; it builds it.

Right now, the Pacific is holding onto a weak La Niña, and while it’s not strong, it’s just influential enough to nudge the jet stream farther south than usual. That slight shift matters. It encourages storms to track from the southern Plains into Missouri and Illinois instead of cutting north into the Great Lakes. When the storm track dips, cold air gets more territory to work with — and that’s when winter gets teeth.

At the same time, the high latitudes are already showing signs they’re ready to join the party. Early-season trends point toward patterns that allow Arctic air to break free more easily and spill into the central U.S. Add in the occasional push of cold air out of Alaska, which drops straight through the Plains, and suddenly you’ve got the kind of winter setup that gets everyone’s attention.

When you blend a shifted jet stream, easier Arctic access, and a steady pipeline of Gulf moisture, Missouri and Illinois sit right in the collision zone. That’s where winter weather thrives — where warm air tries to climb over shallow cold, where gradients tighten, and where storms refuse to behave. This is the classic recipe for a winter with personality: snow north, mix in the middle, ice south, and surprises for everyone.

So, the atmospheric backdrop is clear. Winter 2025–26 isn’t coming quietly. It has large-scale support, cold, and moisture to make sure it’s felt from December through February. And that’s exactly why this outlook leans colder, busier, and more impactful than what we’ve seen in the last several years.

🔹 Shared Ingredient

🧩 Description

🌍 Impact on Missouri & Illinois

Weak La Niña / Neutral ENSO

Keeps subtropical jet active but not dominant

Brings Gulf moisture north — “fuel for snow and ice.”

Negative AO / NAO

Allows Arctic air to escape southward

Sets up repeated cold intrusions and polar outbreaks.

Periodic Negative EPO

Ridge over Alaska, trough over Midwest

Reinforces deep cold and keeps jet aimed at Missouri.

Active Storm Track

Southern Plains → Mid-Mississippi → Ohio Valley

Places St. Louis and I-70 in the snow/ice battleground.

How storms will make their weather here (the mesoscale mechanics)

Winter storms in Missouri and Illinois follow a familiar playbook, even if every storm develops its own personality. Most of what we deal with comes down to two ingredients working against each other: a shallow dome of cold air near the surface and warmer, moisture-rich air sliding in above it. When those layers meet, that’s when winter really gets interesting.

In many events, the cold air near the ground only extends up to about 900–850 mb, just a few thousand feet deep. Above that, southwesterly winds carry warmer air from the Plains and the Gulf. When that warm, moist air glides up and over the surface cold dome, the atmosphere starts lifting along “isentropic surfaces” — basically layers where temperature and moisture like to travel together. On the 290–300 K surfaces, that uplift can be broad and steady, producing the long-duration winter events we remember: hours of snow north of the boundary, sleet and freezing rain through the heart of the region, and cold rain farther southeast.

The low-level jet is another major player. When it ramps ups to 30–45 knots at around 850 mb, it taps directly into the western Gulf of Mexico. That surge of moisture can dramatically increase precipitation rates. If, at the same time, the upper-level jet positions its right-entrance region over our area, lift intensifies further — and that’s how you end up with heavy snow bands dropping one to two inches per hour on the cold side of the system.

Putting It Together

Layer

Typical Altitude

What Happens

Outcome

Surface–900 mb

Ground to ~3,000 ft

Dense cold air settles

Below-freezing surface; sets stage for ice/snow

850–800 mb

4,000–6,000 ft

Warm advection aloft

“Warm nose” decides sleet vs freezing rain

700–500 mb

10,000–18,000 ft

Strong lift + saturation

Produces snow generation zone

250 mb

~34,000 ft

Jet-streak right-entrance region

Adds vertical motion → heavy banding

On any given winter day, two things decide the outcome:

1. How warm the air is a few thousand feet above the ground (the “warm nose”).

2. How deep and stubborn the cold near the surface is.

If the warm layer aloft grows deep enough — more than about 1.5 km — and surface temperatures stay below freezing, raindrops freeze on contact, creating freezing rain. If the warm layer is shallower but still above freezing, snowflakes melt halfway down and refreeze into sleet. If the warm layer never really develops, or if strong lift cools it from the top down (what meteorologists call dynamic cooling), the column stays cold enough for all snow.

This is why Southeast Missouri and Southern Illinois so often face messy winter weather. They sit directly under that warm-nose battleground, where just a small shift in temperature aloft can mean the difference between snow, sleet, or ice glaze. Central Missouri, by contrast, usually sits on the colder side of the boundary, which is why places like Columbia and Jefferson City tend to score more pure snowfall during these setups. Meanwhile, areas like Farmington, Cape Girardeau, and Carbondale often end up wrestling with ice and mixed precipitation.

In short, the mesoscale details — the shape of the warm layer, the depth of the cold dome, and how much moisture is feeding into the system — are what turn a winter storm from “no big deal” into something that shuts down roads, schools, and everything in between. And in this winter pattern, those ingredients will be on the table often.

How storms will make their weather here (the mesoscale mechanics)

Winter storms in Missouri and Illinois don’t behave like the big springtime thunderstorm outbreaks. Instead, they’re layered, slow-building systems driven by sharp temperature contrasts and a shallow blanket of cold air sitting near the ground. Most of our winter weather comes from a mix of frontogenesis and overrunning — the quieter but powerful processes that make the Midwest a magnet for snow, sleet, and ice.

To understand how these storms form and why our precipitation types change so much over short distances, we look not only at observations but also at guidance from models such as the ECMWF, the GFS, the Canadian models, the NAM, and high-resolution ensembles. These models help diagnose the structure of the atmosphere: the shape of the warm layer aloft, the depth of the cold dome, and where lift is strongest. All of that determines whether a storm becomes a high-impact snow event or a sheet of ice.

Frontogenetical bands: the engine behind our most memorable winter storms

Frontogenesis — the sharpening of temperature gradients — is the heartbeat of Midwest winter precipitation. It often happens between 850 and 700 mb, where cold air and warm air meet in a tight boundary. When that gradient intensifies, air rises along the sloping front, forming a conveyor belt of lift.

This is where we see the long, narrow snow bands that show up beautifully on radar:

• If the gradient tightens inside a deep cold layer, the lift produces heavy snow bursts at one to two inches per hour, usually north of I-70.
• If the front sharpens over a narrow warm layer, that same lift produces sleet or freezing rain rather than snow.

This is why Central Missouri often sits in the steady-snow zone: it’s positioned on the cold side of the frontal slope. Southeast Missouri and Southern Illinois, on the warm edge of the slope, tend to deal with freezing rain and sleet because they’re under the lift but above freezing aloft.

Frontogenesis is something models handle differently: the ECMWF and NAM often pick up on narrow heavy-banding features before the GFS or Canadian models do, making them especially valuable in high-impact events.

Overrunning: the Midwest’s winter specialty

When Arctic air pours south, it behaves like a dense liquid, spreading out along the ground and piling up against the Ozarks and the lower Mississippi River Valley. Above that dense cold layer, the atmosphere invites in warm, moist air from the southwest at around 850 mb. Because cold air is too heavy to mix out, warm air has only one option: it must rise up and over the cold dome.

This setup produces the classic overrunning events we know well — the 12–24-hour periods of steady snow, sleet, or freezing rain.

On isentropic surfaces (typically between 285–300 K), this lift is gentle but persistent. The amount of precipitation we see depends on how much moisture the low-level jet pulls in from the Gulf and how solidly the cold dome stays locked in place.

The ECMWF and Canadian models tend to handle overrunning moisture better, while the GFS sometimes underplays the depth of the cold dome. This matters when forecasting ice in areas like Farmington, Cape Girardeau, and Carbondale.

The role of the low-level jet and upper-level jet streaks

A strong low-level jet — usually 30–45 knots around 850 mb — is often the difference between a minor event and a big one. When the LLJ strengthens, it pumps warm, moist air into the frontal zone and increases lift where the jet terminates.

A stronger LLJ can also deepen the warm layer aloft, pushing the freezing-line and sleet-line farther north. This is why storms with a powerful LLJ often bring mixed precipitation to St. Louis and ice south of I-70.

Meanwhile, the upper-level jet at around 250 mb plays its own game. When Missouri or Illinois sits beneath the right-entrance region of a jet streak, upper-level divergence enhances the entire column of lift. That’s when radar lights up with strong snow bands stretching from Kansas City toward Vandalia — narrow arcs where snowfall rates can spike dramatically.

Models like the ECMWF and NAM typically do the best job capturing jet placement and intensity, which is why forecasters lean on them heavily in complex winter setups.

The warm nose: the layer that decides everything

Every winter forecaster in this part of the country obsesses over one thing: the warm layer between about 850 and 800 mb — often called the warm nose.

• If this layer heats to +1 to +3°C and is over a kilometer deep while surface temperatures stay below freezing, freezing rain becomes the dominant precipitation type.
• If the layer is shallow and only slightly above freezing, snowflakes melt partially and refreeze into sleet.
• If the warm layer never materializes, or if evaporative cooling weakens it, snow remains the primary outcome.

Southeast Missouri and Southern Illinois sit on the tightrope nearly every event. The I-55 corridor is the region’s “flip line,” where a mere one-degree change aloft or a shift in the surface wind can determine everything. Central Missouri, farther from the warm-layer influence, remains in the better snow zone.

This warm nose is best diagnosed by models like the NAM, ECMWF, and short-range ensembles. The GFS tends to overwarm this layer in borderline situations, which can lead to false ice forecasts that ultimately become snow events.

Dynamic cooling and wet-bulb effects

Sometimes the atmosphere fixes its own problems. Even when a warm layer aloft exists, strong lift or dry air below can erase it:

• Evaporation cools the air as precipitation falls through dry layers, dropping the temperature toward the wet-bulb — sometimes by several degrees in under an hour.
• Dynamic cooling from strong upward motion can cool the warm layer from above.

This is why storms that look icy on paper can flip to snow once precipitation rates increase. High-resolution models, especially the HRRR and NAM Nest, often spot these transitions earlier than global models.

Cold domes and topography

Cold air behaves like water — it flows downhill, fills valleys, and settles into low spots. The Ozark Plateau and the Mississippi River Valley shape how that cold air moves:

• Cold air funnels straight toward Farmington, Cape Girardeau, and Carbondale, keeping the surface colder longer.
• The Ozark foothills act as a barrier during overrunning events, trapping cold air and increasing ice risk along and south of I-44.
• North of the Ozarks, the terrain allows cold air to mix out more easily, which is why St. Louis can sometimes warm faster than towns only 30–40 miles away.

Terrain effects are often handled best by high-resolution models like the NAM Nest, HRRR, and regional ensembles.

December – The Opening Act with Teeth

December is shaping up to be the kind of month that doesn’t politely knock on the door before entering. It charges in with purpose. It carries early cold, real storm chances, and the kind of volatility that sets the tone for the entire season. If winter were a stage play, December is the dramatic opening act that tells you exactly what kind of performance you’re in for.

This year, the atmosphere isn’t easing us in. It’s building energy across the hemisphere — from the surface all the way to the stratosphere — and that momentum spills straight into the first month of meteorological winter. What’s unusual is how early all of this starts. Instead of waiting until mid-December to flip the switch, winter appears ready to take over before the calendar even turns.

Late November Fuse — Lighting the Runway for Winter

The transition into winter begins in the final few days of November. Several global models — the ECMWF, GFS, Canadian GDPS, and their ensemble families — have been very consistent about a sharper, earlier pattern shift arriving around Thanksgiving weekend.

Instead of the typical slow fade from fall, we get:

• Highs falling into the 30s and low 40s
• Lows dipping into the teens and 20s
• A burst of northwest winds delivering true Arctic air
• Flurries or light snow across northern and central Missouri
• A risk of black ice on bridges during late-night travel

This early flip matters. Cold ground, cold soil, and shallow cold pools all make a huge difference once storms start rolling through in December. If the atmosphere pre-cools the region, it becomes much easier for storms to produce snow instead of cold rain — especially north of I-70.

A Rare Early-Season Signal — The Stratosphere Gets Involved

A fascinating (and rare) twist this year is an early-season stratospheric warming signal. Some of the extended-range guidance — especially the ECMWF Weeklies — hints at the possibility of an early Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event. These events don’t happen often in late fall or early December, but when they do, they can disrupt the polar vortex and allow frigid Arctic air to escape southward.

If this event unfolds — and model data has been unusually persistent with the idea — the surface impacts would likely arrive 10–20 days later, lining up almost perfectly with the December 7–15 period.

An early SSW would mean:

• A deeper, more stubborn cold pattern
• Longer-lasting Arctic air outbreaks
• A stronger probability of snow in early and mid-December
• Higher odds of snowpack surviving into Christmas week

This is one of the reasons December 2025 is getting so much meteorological attention — the atmosphere is behaving like a winter that wants to make a statement early.

Pattern Evolution — From Flip to Freeze

December opens with the last remnants of fall. Highs linger in the upper 40s or low 50s, and you can still walk outside without a parka. But that changes quickly around December 7–9.

The GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian models all show a strong western ridge building with a deep trough diving into the Midwest. The pattern sharpens, cold air deepens, and a storm track begins to form from New Mexico through Oklahoma into the Missouri Bootheel.

When you blend the big model signals together, a few themes emerge:

• The western ridge forces colder air into our region
• The southern jet becomes energized and moisture-rich
• Pressure falls across the southern Plains advertise storm development
• A cold dome sits over Missouri and Illinois ready to be overrun from above

This combination is the perfect “winter engine” in our part of the country. Frozen precipitation becomes more likely than rain, especially north of the Missouri River.

December 10–12 — The First Big Winter Window

The first major storm window lights up right around December 10–12. What’s impressive is the consistency across the ensembles — this isn’t a one-run blip.

The European Ensemble (EPS) repeatedly develops a deep trough from the Dakotas into Missouri, flooding the region with subfreezing air. It then pumps a plume of moisture overhead, producing widespread precipitation. If that moisture meets the cold dome over central Missouri, you’re looking at a plowable event.

The American Ensemble (GEFS) paints 850 mb temperatures of –8°C to –12°C, cold enough for snow even if surface temperatures are marginal. The Canadian Ensemble (GEPS) trends colder and wetter with every run.

In plain terms: the models are raising their eyebrows at this period.

December 18–20 — The Holiday System

Once the cold pattern is established, it becomes very easy for waves of energy to slide along the boundary. Another system emerges in the ensembles around December 18–20. This is the storm that could dictate Christmas odds.

If the cold dome is strong:

• Central and northern Missouri receive accumulating snow
• St. Louis gets sleet changing to snow
• Southeast Missouri and southern Illinois deal with ice

If the warm nose wins:

• Snow stays north
• St. Louis gets ice or a mix
• Southeast Missouri warms into cold rain

Either way, this period looks active and messy.

Christmas Week — White or Green?

Typical White Christmas odds:

• St. Louis: 15–20%
• Columbia/Jeff City: 25–30%
• Cape/Carbondale: 5–10%

This year, because of:

• early cold
• a possible SSW
• a stronger pattern
• two mid-month storm windows
• higher snow retention potential

…the numbers increase significantly.

If snow falls between December 10–20, it could realistically still be on the ground Christmas morning.

White Christmas Odds (Higher Than Normal)

Central MO

40–50%

Persistent cold, mid-month snow windows

St. Louis Metro

30–40%

One decent pre-holiday storm could do it

SE Missouri / Southern IL

15–25%

Better than normal, but warm-nose issues linger

December Folklore, Animal Behavior, and Fun Facts

December is filled with old-school signs of winter that farmers and rural families still swear by. And honestly? Many of them tend to show up during active early winters like this one.

• Squirrels building nests higher in trees — a classic sign of a stormier winter.
• Cattle grouping tightly in fields — often tied to an approaching snow system.
• Birds flying low and in tight flocks — a pressure-drop indicator ahead of long-duration winter weather.
• The “thick coat” rule — livestock and pets growing thicker coats earlier than usual often matches early cold outbreaks.
• The persimmon seed test — spoons = heavy wet snow. There have been a lot of spoons reported this year.
• Corgis acting restless — the Dr. Nick special indicator. Corgis don’t play around when the pressure drops.

And a classic fun fact:
December is the month when the most “surprise” snows occur, not because the storms are sneaky, but because marginal setups suddenly flip to snow through dynamic cooling.

Why December Matters This Year

December is the foundation of the entire winter. This year, all signs point to a December that behaves like winter — early cold, multiple storm windows, and a pattern strong enough to produce real snowfall. When December sets up properly, January and February usually don’t disappoint.

The cold establishes early.
The storm track locks in.
Moisture is plentiful.
And the models — all of them — are buying into the idea of a front-loaded winter.

If December delivers as expected, this winter will be remembered.

January – The Core of Winter (Where the Season Will Be Won or Lost)

If December is the dramatic opening act, January is the show-stopper — the month that determines the entire character of Winter 2025–26. This is where the cold deepens, the storm track becomes more focused, and the atmosphere brings out its heavier tools. Everything we see in the early pattern — the cold December start, the potential early-season stratospheric warming, the expanding snowpack to our north — all funnels toward one conclusion: January is the month that will define this winter.

The atmosphere often reveals its intentions by mid-December, but this year the signals have been unusually bold. Model guidance, historical analogs, and hemispheric patterns all point toward January delivering long-duration cold, multiple winter storms, and possibly the most disruptive weather of the entire season. And unlike recent winters with quick warm-ups or intermittent chill, this January carries the potential for sustained cold — the kind that changes road conditions, deepens frost lines, and makes every passing storm a high-impact event.

The Pattern: Why January Turns Serious

January looks primed for a prolonged cold-dominated pattern. In simpler terms, the big weather drivers across the Northern Hemisphere align in a way that repeatedly funnels Arctic air into the central United States.

Here’s the atmospheric layout in plain language:

• High pressure tends to build in Alaska and the North Atlantic, which forces cold air southward into the Plains.
• Storms steer along a path from Texas and Oklahoma into the Ohio Valley — a storm track that puts Missouri and Illinois on the snowy/icy side of winter systems.
• The jet stream slows and dips more often, creating long stretches where cold air can settle in and stay.

The ECMWF, GEFS, and Canadian GEPS ensembles all show a broad trough dominating the Midwest from roughly January 5 through January 25. That’s a huge window for cold and storm potential. Ensemble trends show 850 mb temperatures running 6–12°F below normal, with surface temperatures often staying below freezing for days at a time.

Even without a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event, this pattern is strong enough on its own to deliver Arctic air. With an SSW — which remains a real possibility after the signals in late November — the cold would likely intensify and become more persistent about 10–20 days later. This aligns almost perfectly with the timing of the January 8–18 storm window.

Temperatures: The Deep Freeze Returns

January has the best chance of delivering the kind of cold we haven’t seen consistently in years. This is Arctic air, not just polar air — and it settles in deeper and lasts longer.

In these cold spells:

• Central Missouri struggles to climb out of the teens or low 20s for several days, with lows dropping into the single digits or even slightly below zero.
• St. Louis sees highs stuck in the upper 20s to low 30s, with nights in the teens.
• Southeast Missouri and southern Illinois ride the freezing line — cold enough for ice, but warm enough to keep everyone guessing.

Snow cover to the north only strengthens this cold, reflecting sunlight, cooling the air mass, and allowing dense air to drain south into Missouri and Illinois.

By mid-month, we could experience 10–14 consecutive days of below-freezing highs, similar in duration (though not necessarily intensity) to the notable January cold waves of 1979 and 2014.

Storm Mechanics: How January Builds Its Most Impactful Events

January storms in Missouri and Illinois almost always rely on the same setup:

• A deep, dense Arctic dome sitting at the surface
• Warm, moist air rushing in above it from the Gulf
• Lift created as that warm air is forced up and over the cold dome
• A strong low-level jet feeding moisture into the system
• A narrowing thermal battleground where tiny changes in temperature decide everything

This creates three very different weather outcomes depending on where you are:

North of I-70:
All snow — often 4–8" per event when the column stays entirely below freezing. Ratios can increase to 13–15:1 during deeper cold waves, turning modest liquid amounts into half a foot or more of snow.

St. Louis Metro:
The warm-nose battleground. Snow changes to sleet, sleet changes to snow, snow changes back to sleet. It’s the full winter bingo card. Sharp gradients often mean 6" on one side of the metro and a glaze on the other.

Southeast Missouri & Southern Illinois:
The ice zone. If the warm layer aloft reaches +1°C to +3°C while the surface remains subfreezing, freezing rain dominates. The models already hint at multiple setups that could produce significant glaze — especially between Farmington, Cape Girardeau, Poplar Bluff, Carbondale, and Benton.

Dynamic cooling can shift a storm from ice to snow if precipitation intensity increases. Conversely, a strengthening low-level jet can deepen the warm layer quickly and flip snow to sleet or freezing rain.

This is why forecasting precipitation type in January is so critical — and so challenging.

Computer Models: What They’re Telling Us About January

This far out, ensemble models are our best friends. And right now, they’re all singing the same song:

ECMWF (European Model):
Handles temperature gradients well; consistently shows multiple southern-stream storms interacting with Arctic air. EPS snowfall probabilities hint at 6–12" across central Missouri by month’s end.

GFS (American Model):
Often too fast but very good at spotting early storm signals. Shows repeated Gulf-fed waves, more moisture for St. Louis, and higher ice potential south of I-64.

Canadian (CMC/GEPS):
Coldest solution. Shows deep Arctic intrusions and multiple precipitation events with meaningful liquid content — ideal for snow north, ice south.

Long-range guidance (ECMWF Weeklies, CFSv2):
Both reinforce a cold pattern through January 25 and keep the storm track suppressed, favoring snow and ice across Missouri and Illinois.

When all these systems agree, odds of a high-impact month skyrocket.

The Big Storm Windows

January 8–18: The Prime Window
This is the heavyweight period — the strongest cold, the best dynamics, and the highest storm potential. This window is the one that could deliver:

• A major snowstorm north
• A dangerous ice storm south
• A messy snow/sleet combo in St. Louis

If the SSW verifies, this window becomes even more intense.

January 25–30: The Arctic Reload
A brief thaw mid-month gives way to another cold blast. A secondary storm window likely develops as a new southern-stream wave rides under the strengthened cold dome. Snow north, ice south — again.

January Folklore, Animal Behavior, and Fun Facts

January is full of winter wisdom that passed down through generations, and much of it matches the science:

• “If January starts with a roar, it ends with a storm.”
• “Thick hoarfrost means snow within two days.”
• “Birds flying low in cold air means snow coming.”
• “Cattle grouping tightly = temperature drop and snow ahead.”
• “Dogs pacing or acting restless means pressure is falling.”
• And, of course: Corgis acting chaotic means winter weather is imminent.

Fun fact:
January has delivered five of the top ten coldest weeks in Missouri’s climate history. It’s also the most likely month to produce a statewide winter storm warning.

Why January Matters This Year

This is the month where the cold is deepest, the storm track is most active, and the atmosphere is most capable of producing impactful winter weather. With early-season cold, potential stratospheric support, strong model alignment, and multiple storm windows, January 2025 carries a higher-than-normal chance of producing:

• Significant snow
• High-impact ice
• Multiple disruptive winter storms
• At least one prolonged Arctic outbreak

If this winter becomes memorable, it will almost certainly be because of January.

February – The False Spring, the Slop, and the Sting in the Tail

If January is winter flexing its muscle, February is winter playing mind games. This is the month that makes people in Missouri and Illinois walk outside in a hoodie on Tuesday and shovel heavy, wet snow on Thursday. It’s the month that lures you into thinking spring is close, only to smack you with a late-season cold punch just when you start planning your first barbecue. In a weakening La Niña, February becomes a battleground of warm surges, sneaky cold air, and southern storm systems that carry far more moisture than anything we dealt with earlier in the season.

This February is shaping up to embrace every bit of that mood. The models are already flashing signs of a chaotic pattern — the kind that brings warmth early, slop in the middle, and a final sting near the end. While January delivers the big cold, February delivers the mess.

The Big Picture – From Lockdown to Whiplash

As La Niña weakens toward neutral territory, the jet stream begins to lose its discipline. Instead of staying locked in one position for weeks, it begins to undulate, dipping south for a few days, then retreating north again. This wavy pattern is classic late-winter behavior — and it usually leads to more moisture, more mix events, and more headaches for forecasters.

The ECMWF Weeklies show this evolution clearly:

• The jet splits into two branches: one across the northern U.S. and one across the southern tier.
• Missouri and Illinois sit right on the battleground, where warm air tries to push north and cold Arctic air lurks just to the other side of the border.
• Storms take advantage of this split pattern by swinging through the southern Plains and then curving toward the Ohio Valley — the perfect path for “slop storms.”

The GFS and Canadian ensembles agree, repeatedly draping a sharp thermal boundary across Missouri. North of this boundary, temperatures hover near freezing; south of it, warm surges push highs into the 50s or even low 60s. And once the Gulf opens up fully, February’s moisture supply shifts into high gear. Storms begin carrying 0.75"–1.25" of liquid — plenty of fuel for heavy, wet snow or significant icing when temperatures cooperate.

February is not as cold as January, but it can be just as impactful — and sometimes more disruptive because of the slush, moisture, and unpredictability.

Temperatures – From False Spring to Flash Freeze

If December and January are consistent, February is anything but. The month is a roller coaster.

Early February (1–10):
Mild surges dominate. Highs reach the 40s and 50s across southern Missouri and Illinois, while central and northern Missouri stay in the 30s. People start cracking windows and declaring winter “basically over.”

Mid-February (11–20):
The whiplash period. Strong warm days pushed by a vigorous southern jet can bring highs in the upper 50s or 60s, followed just 48 hours later by a 25-degree drop and light snow.

Late February (20–29):
The sting in the tail. If blocking returns to the Arctic — which several ECMWF extended products hint at — a late cold relapse becomes increasingly likely. This is the kind of pattern that can turn a 45°F rain forecast into a heavy wet snowstorm by morning.

Ensemble means hold temperatures near or slightly below normal for the month overall, but the swings are what people will remember. And if a late-season stratospheric warming event occurs, the odds of an end-of-month cold shot rise dramatically.

Storm Behavior – Heavy, Wet, and Unpredictable

This is the month where every storm is a mystery novel.

The cold air is shallower in February, and the warm, moist air above it is more impressive. That means precipitation types get messy fast.

North of I-70:
Cold air at the surface remains just cold enough for heavy, wet snow when southern-track lows approach. Ratios drop to 8:1 or 10:1, but with high moisture, totals add up fast. Some EPS and GEFS runs show 1.00"+ liquid equivalents north of the boundary — which is 8–10" of snow in one storm.

St. Louis Metro:
Welcome to Slop City. The Metro sits in the zone where surface cold battles a warm layer aloft hovering around +2°C. These storms can bring rain→freezing rain→sleet→snow all in one day. This is the classic February mess that creates the heaviest shoveling and the most dangerous commutes.

Southeast Missouri & Southern Illinois:
You warm up faster at the surface, but the warm-nose aloft grows even deeper. That means freezing rain is still on the table if surface temperatures slip just below freezing overnight. Several February analogs — including 1997, 2018, and 2019 — delivered significant glazing south of I-64.

The Canadian and ECMWF ensembles repeatedly highlight two storm windows: early February (3–6) and late February (18–28). The late-month window, especially, carries the signature of a “last hurrah” winter event — heavy snow north, slop central, ice south.

Computer Model Consensus and Trends

By February, model divergence increases, but their themes remain the same:

ECMWF (Euro):
Handles marginal setups best. Shows at least two southern-track storms with significant wintry potential.

GFS (American):
Overdoes warmth early, then reverses sharply once cold arrives. Keeps the storm track directly across Missouri and Illinois.

Canadian (CMC/GEPS):
Coldest solution and most aggressive with the late-month trough. Its snowfall maps hint at a 4–8" event for central Missouri during the final week.

Ensemble Means (EPS/GEFS/GEPS):
Smooth the noise. They agree that:
• The storm track stays active
• Marginal cold dominates
• The biggest snow chances come early and late month

When all three major ensemble suites highlight the same two storm windows, confidence naturally rises.

Storm Windows to Watch

Here are your big February periods, now written narrative-style:

February 3–6:
A southern-stream system taps deep Gulf moisture and interacts with just enough cold to produce heavy wet snow north of I-70 and mixed precip in the Metro. Southeast Missouri risks icing.

February 18–28:
The late-month sting. A colder pattern tries to reestablish while moisture remains abundant. This is the classic setup for a widespread winter storm — possibly the last major event of the season. The ECMWF control even shows a multi-inch snow across central and northern Missouri in this window.

February Folklore, Fun Facts, and Animal Behavior

February has its own set of folklore — and honestly, some of it hits close to home:

• “Thunder in February means frost in May.”
• “If the groundhog sees his shadow, expect more snow — but only after false spring teases you first.”
• Birds perched on power lines instead of flying signals incoming slop.
• Pets avoiding the door or acting clingy often means incoming ice. (Corgis included.)
• And a favorite rural saying: “If February gives you sunshine, it will take something back.”

Fun fact:
February produces some of Missouri’s heaviest wet snows, including several of the top 10 single-day snowfalls on record. It is also the month that most often delivers a late-season “gotcha” storm — the one that happens just when people start washing their winter coats.

Why February Matters

February is the month that tries to undo January’s work — but often fails. Warm spells tease, cold snaps return, and storms tap deeper and deeper Gulf moisture. The result is a month defined by messy, high-impact systems that create more travel problems than January, even if temperatures aren’t as brutally cold.

This February carries the fingerprint of a weakening La Niña, rising moisture, faster-moving boundaries, and at least one more chance for a disruptive winter storm. It’s the final chapter of winter — unpredictable, dramatic, and capable of delivering surprises right up to the very last day.

**🗺️ Region-by-Region Personality

(How This Winter Plays Out Locally)**

This winter won’t treat every part of the First Warn coverage area the same. With a weakening La Niña, a busy southern jet, and repeated Arctic intrusions, the details matter more than ever. A single 50-mile shift in track could change a forecast from “shovelable snow” to “tree-snapping ice.”

Every region gets its own storyline this year — some snowy, some icy, all memorable.

**❄️ Central Missouri

(Columbia – Jefferson City – Lake of the Ozarks)**

Winter Personality: Snow country.
Climatology: Average seasonal snowfall ~16–20″ (Columbia closer to 20″).
This year: Expect above average, potentially 25–32″.

Central Missouri sits north of the warm nose in most storms — and that matters. The Euro, GEFS, and Canadian ensembles all keep the primary thermal boundary between I-44 and I-70 for most of the winter, placing Columbia, Jeff City, and the Lake comfortably in the cold sector.

This region is in the best position to cash in on:

• December frontogenesis-driven bands
• January deformation zones
• February wet-snow setups with deep moisture
• Clippers and Alberta-screamer bursts between major systems

During January’s Arctic shots, snowpack will reinforce itself. Highs in the teens and 20s with overnight lows in the single digits allow snow to linger and stack.

This is the one part of our region with a real chance at a “classic” snowy winter — steady snow cover, several 3–6″ events, and one or two 6–10″ storms if the southern track lines up.

**🌨️ St. Louis Metro

(St. Louis – St. Charles – Metro East)**

Winter Personality: The transition battleground.
Climatology: STL averages 17–18″ of snow.
This year: Expect 15–22″ — a touch above normal, but with big swings.

The metro straddles the 850 mb freezing line for a huge chunk of the season. The warm nose isn’t always your enemy… but this year it’s definitely going to toy with you. In some storms it deepens (hello sleet), in others dynamic cooling wipes it out (hello 1–2″/hr bands), and sometimes it does both in a single morning commute.

You’ll see every kind of winter weather:

• Flash-freeze mornings
• Sleet storms where pellets ping off everything
• Heavy wet snow during February moisture surges
• One or two major winter storms with widespread impacts

If we get one good deformation band event — especially a Jan 8–18 or Feb 18–28 setup — St. Louis easily lands near 20″.

**🧊 Southeast Missouri

(Farmington – Poplar Bluff – Cape Girardeau)

Winter Personality: Ice alley.
Climatology: Snowfalls run 6–8″ per season on average.
This year: Expect 10–14″ snow and 0.75–1.25″ of total ice.

This region sits in a warm-air-dominant zone but gets repeatedly invaded by shallow Arctic domes drifting south out of St. Louis. Overlay that with a strong southern jet and strong Gulf moisture, and you have the classic freezing-rain setup.

The Euro EPS and Canadian GEPS highlight your region in almost every mid-winter overrunning setup, especially:

• Jan 8–18
• Feb 3–6
• Feb 20–27

Those windows could deliver two or three high-impact icing events, with glaze accretion of 0.25–0.50″ at a time — enough to snap small limbs and create dangerous roads.

Snow chances improve when dynamic cooling takes over. A southern-track low cutting through Memphis or Jackson can flip you to a 4–6″ heavy, wet snow, especially late in February.

This will be the region with the greatest hazard this winter — the most outages, the slickest roads, and the highest risk for travel snarls.

**🌨️ Southern Illinois

(Sparta – Carbondale – Mt. Vernon)**

Winter Personality: Mixed, messy, and occasionally impressive.
Climatology: 10–12″ annual snowfall.
This year: Expect 12–18″ snow plus 0.50–0.75″ of ice total.

Southern Illinois mirrors southeast Missouri but stays just cold enough to cash in more often on snow. It sits right along the baroclinic zone — the razor’s edge that determines whether a storm is wet, icy, or snowy.

Model soundings from both the GFS and ECMWF repeatedly show:

• Surface temps hovering 29–33°F
• A warm nose at +1 to +3°C around 850 mb
• Deep moisture from the southern jet

That’s the classic sleet/freezing-rain signature.

But because your region is often 1–3°F colder than southeast Missouri, one good deformation-band or dynamically cooled storm could drop 6″+ — especially in the Feb 18–28 window.

Expect:

• Multiple advisory-level sleet and freezing rain events
• Several 2–4″ wet snowfalls
• One legitimate winter storm capable of 6″+

Overall precipitation will be above normal thanks to the southern storm track.

🧭 Regional Summary with Average

Central Missouri

16–20″

25–32″

Minimal

Heavy snow, cold snaps

Strong model support for above-normal season

St. Louis Metro

17–18″

15–22″

0.25–0.50″

Sleet, wet snow, flash freezes

High variability year; one big storm boosts totals

SE Missouri

6–8″

10–14″

0.75–1.25″

Ice storms, power issues

Most dangerous part of region this winter

Southern Illinois

10–12″

12–18″

0.50–0.75″

Mixed events, late wet snow

Best shot at a late-Feb surprise

🎁 Holiday Specifics (What People Will Ask You About)

The holidays are when everyone suddenly becomes a part-time meteorologist — checking travel plans, staring at the sky, or asking, “So… are we getting snow?” The atmosphere tends to put on a show this time of year, especially in winters like this one, when weak La Niña conditions, early-season cold intrusions, and an active southern storm track team up across Missouri and Illinois.

Here’s how Thanksgiving, Christmas, and New Year’s are shaping up based on the ECMWF, GFS, Canadian ensembles, and what our analog years are whispering in the background.

🦃 Thanksgiving — Thursday, November 27, 2025

Thanksgiving week signals the handoff from fall to winter. This year, the atmosphere isn’t subtle about it—warm early, sharply colder late, and a little wintry drama before the leftovers are gone by the first week of December.

Thanksgiving Day (Thu Nov 27)

A colder, deeper air mass settles in. Highs: 30s to low 40s. Wind chills: upper 20s. Mostly dry, but it feels like winter cracked the door open.

❄️ First Week of December

This is the part people won’t expect.

Ensemble guidance has been consistent in showing a weak overrunning wave sliding along the baroclinic zone behind Thanksgiving front. Not a major storm — but just enough moisture + cold air = trouble.

Meteorological Setup

• Arctic air firmly in place
• 850mb temps: -4°C to -8°C across central MO
• Weak isentropic lift developing
• Narrow QPF ribbon from KS → MO → IL

This is textbook “light post-frontal snow band” territory.

What It Means Regionally

• Central MO: Dusting to 1" possible
• St. Louis Metro: Flurries, maybe a whitening on grass
• Southern IL / SE MO: Flurries or rain/snow mix, with slick bridges after dark

It’s subtle…but meaningful. If this verifies, it signals that early December may swing colder and more active than usual — which matches both the analogs and current model trends.

🎄 Christmas — Thursday, December 25, 2025

The question everyone asks: “Are we getting a white Christmas?”
This year: better than average chances, especially north of I-70.

Why the Pattern Favors Snow This Year

The mid-December period (Dec 10–12 & Dec 18–20) is loaded with storm potential. If any snow sticks during those waves, a colder pattern leading up to Christmas helps preserve it.

Both ECMWF and Canadian ensembles suggest:

• 2–4°C below-normal 850 mb temps Dec 21–27
• High pressure north, mild Gulf flow suppressed
• Another weak wave possible Christmas Eve

That’s exactly how you sustain snow cover — or pick up a fresh dusting — right before the 25th.

White Christmas Odds (Higher Than Normal)

Region

Probability

Why

Central MO

40–50%

Persistent cold, mid-month snow windows

St. Louis Metro

30–40%

One decent pre-holiday storm could do it

SE Missouri / Southern IL

15–25%

Better than normal, but warm-nose issues linger

“Circle These” Windows
When the Background Pattern Is Most Supportive

These are the stretches where the big-picture pattern, ensemble guidance, and analog years all lean toward meaningful winter weather in Missouri and Illinois. Each window has its own personality — early-season overrunning, mid-winter Arctic punches, and the occasional late-season system that tries to steal the show right before spring.

Nov 30– Dec 6

First Real Wintry Shot (Overrunning / Mix Risk STL & SEMO)

This is where Fall finally hands over the keys. Right after Thanksgiving, model trends pull the first major cold surge into the Plains while a healthy 500 mb trough digs in. At the same time, Gulf moisture tries to override the shallow cold dome near the surface. That’s textbook overrunning.

ECMWF ensembles keep sub-freezing temps locked in north of I-70 while a warm layer noses in from the southwest. That’s how you end up with snow to the north, a messy mix around St. Louis, and cold rain or a late-day transition farther south.

Expect:
• Light to moderate snow for Central Missouri and west-central Illinois
• Sleet/freezing rain near and south of STL
• Rain changing to mixed precip across SEMO and Southern Illinois

It’s a classic early-season travel problem if road temps fall below freezing after sunset. Winters 1996–97 and 2017–18 had the same setup: early cold, then a sloppy December starter.

Dec 10 – Dec 12

Pattern-Lock Wave; The Colder Regime Starts

This is the first system that starts shaping the season. All major global models show a deep trough stacking across the central U.S., locking in true Arctic air. It’s the flip from “occasional chill” to “okay, winter’s here now.”

We may see a stronger storm ride east of the Rockies with cold air already established behind it. North of I-70 has a real shot at its first plowable snow. Temperatures then take a nosedive into the 20s and 30s.

The setup compares well to December 2013 and December 2000, both of which featured a negative AO/NAO pattern that carried cold straight through the holidays.

Dec 18 – Dec 20

The Pre-Holiday Storm — Could Influence White Christmas Odds

This one grab attention every year: a storm just before Christmas that sets the tone for the week ahead. Both the Euro and GFS ensembles keep the southern jet active while cold air stays parked across the Midwest. If the storm track rides along the Arkansas–Tennessee corridor, we’ll have a meaningful snow-to-mix setup.

Potential breakdown:
• Central Missouri: 3–6 inches of snow
• St. Louis Metro: A mix that changes to snow depending on warm-nose depth
• SEMO / Southern Illinois: More ice or cold rain

Analog years 1993–94, 2013–14, and 2017–18 all delivered mid-December storms that influenced Christmas outcomes.

Jan 8 – Jan 18

Peak Winter: Major Snow North / Ice South

This is the heavyweight round. Ensembles show the “big three” indices (AO, NAO, EPO) trending negative together — a classic signal for widespread cold across the central U.S. A deep, broad trough establishes itself, and multiple waves may eject from the Southwest.

The Arctic air locks in from the Dakotas to Missouri, with the boundary line often sitting near I-44/I-70. That’s the perfect dividing line for snow north and icy trouble near and south of it.

Expect:
• North of the boundary: Snowstorm potential with 6 inches or more
• Along/south: Freezing rain or sleet that could become damaging

Nearly every analog winter produced a high-impact storm during this exact second-to-third week of January window.

Jan 25 – Jan 30

Arctic Reload: Brutal Cold, Light Snow, Dangerous Wind Chills

After the mid-month chaos, another cold dump reloads across the Plains. Ensembles show renewed Arctic air with the kind of density that makes the air feel heavy.

Possible conditions:
• Highs only in the teens across northern Missouri
• Lows below zero
• Wind chills between -10 and -20
• Light clipper snows or squalls that maintain snowpack

This isn’t a big storm window, but it has strong January 2014 energy — bitter cold, headlines about frozen pipes, and folks keeping faucets dripping overnight.

Feb 3 – Feb 6

Southern-Track Heavy, Wet Snow Risk

The Arctic air relaxes just a bit, but not enough to remove winter from the map. Meanwhile, the subtropical jet strengthens — which is how you get those big, wet February systems with heavy snow north, a mixed bag near St. Louis, and something sloppier south.

Euro ensembles pin 850 mb temps near 0°C across central Missouri and Illinois. Moisture surges in from the Gulf. That combo supports 8–10 inches of heavy, wet snow north of I-70 with a classic rain/mix line oscillating around the metro.

These storms tend to be memorable… and occasionally exasperating.

Feb 18 – Feb 28

The “Last Hurrah” — One More Big Snow or Mix

People start talking about spring, and winter likes to remind everyone it’s not done. Models and analogs point to another round of colder air in late February, possibly tied to a secondary stratospheric warming or a brief return of northern blocking.

Expect:
• A final snow or mixed event across central Missouri and west-central Illinois
• Rain flipping to heavy, wet snow through dynamic cooling
• Surprise snowbands under strong frontogenesis

Years like 1993–94 and 2017–18 saved one of their biggest punches for this timeframe.

Why These Windows Matter

Weak-to-moderate La Niña winters usually run in 10–20-day cycles: a few days of storminess, followed by reinforcing cold, then another round. These windows match those natural pulses and line up well with the analog years that behaved in similar fashion.

Early December brings the first shove into winter, January supplies the deep freeze and the biggest storms, and late February tries to get the last word.

Winter 2025–2026 – Final Thoughts (The Season in One Breath)

When we step back and look at the full picture — the late-November cold flip, the December storm windows, the January Arctic engine, the February whiplash — one thing becomes clear: this winter isn’t shy. It’s not meandering or confusing. It knows exactly what kind of season it wants to be.

This is a winter built in waves. The early season cold flips the switch before the Christmas lights even go up. December behaves like a headliner instead of an opening act, driven by a southern jet rich in Gulf moisture and the possibility of an early stratospheric disruption. January takes that baton and runs hard with it, using a deep negative AO/NAO pattern to send repeated Arctic surges across Missouri and Illinois. Then February steps in with its trademark “false spring” teases before throwing one colder jab just when people start talking about mulch and seed catalogs.

What makes this winter impressive isn’t just the cold — it’s how efficiently the atmosphere keeps reloading. Each storm window builds on the one before it. Each cold shot arrives into an environment already primed by earlier waves. It’s a chain reaction winter, the kind where one good snow in December sets the stage for another in January, which sets the stage for a late-February sting.

For snow lovers north of I-70, this season has real potential. The mechanics line up: deep cold domes, strong overrunning, plenty of Gulf moisture, and a storm track that keeps leaning just far enough south to keep the frozen side in play. Central Missouri has the best shot at consistent snow cover, while the St. Louis metro sits right on the battleground — the place where the warm nose fights the cold dome, and no two storms behave the same. Southeast Missouri and southern Illinois, meanwhile, will ride the edge of winter’s personality, taking turns with cold rains, glaze storms, and the occasional heavy, wet snow that surprises everyone.

Even the long-range signals — from ensemble clusters to analog composites — work in harmony this year. Winters that resemble this one historically tend to be remembered. Not for being cripplingly harsh, but for being active, dynamic, and dramatic. The kind of winters where people remember the storm, the cold snap, and that day in February when rain flipped to snow while you were still paying your gas station cashier.

Bottom line:
This winter won’t be boring. It won’t be silent. It won’t be one of those “blink and you missed it” seasons. It’s a winter with texture — with chapters — with personality. A winter that ebbs and surges, builds and reloads, tests and teases.

In short, Winter 2025–2026 is shaping up to be the kind of winter people talk about years from now. Not just because of the snowfall totals or the ice events, but because of the rhythm of it — the story arc from November’s first cold punch to February’s final swing.

Get the boots ready. The shovels too. And maybe grab an extra bag of ice melt for good measure.

This winter is ready to put on a show.

🍂 Dr. Nick’s First Warn Fall Forecast 2025

Serving St. Louis • Southeast Missouri • Southern Illinois • Central Missouri

________________________________________

Introduction: How We Built This Forecast

Fall in the Mid-Mississippi Valley is a moving target. Summer heat backs off, the jet stream sharpens, and small nudges in the Pacific can ripple all the way to St. Louis, Southeast Missouri, Southern Illinois, and Central Missouri. To make a sensible forecast for September through November, I use three pillars:

Climatology gives us the “normal” to measure against. September steadily cools, October brings the first frosts, and November delivers bigger fronts and the first flirt with winter. Everything else is a departure from this baseline.

Analog Years are past years that looked similar to our current setup. No two years are identical, but they can rhyme. When several past years share this year’s signals, they help shape expectations for temperature swings, storm timing, and frost risk.

Current Large-Scale Pattern factors like ocean temperatures, soil moisture, and the late-summer jet stream provide the steering currents that allow me to pick the right analogs and weight them correctly.

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What are “Analog Years”?

Analog years are past seasons that line up with today’s large-scale background. For 2025, the closest matches are 1998, 2005, 2010, and 2016.

These years shared:

• Neutral-to-weak La Niña setup in fall

• Negative PDO states

• Late-summer dryness in Missouri/Illinois

Analog outcomes for our region:

• September: Slightly warm overall, cool snaps late.

• October: Quieter early, wetter and stormier late.

• November: Sharp swings, first freezes, one or two soaking storms, flurries north.

These analog years give us confidence that the season will lean toward classic Midwest volatility. It’s worth noting that years like 2010 and 2016 both featured late-season storm systems that disrupted travel around Thanksgiving, while 2005 produced a surprisingly warm October before flipping to chilly, stormy conditions in November.

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La Niña Primer

La Niña is a cooling of tropical Pacific waters that tugs on the jet stream.

• September–October: More northwest flow → warm/cool flips.

• November: Stronger jet → deeper storm systems, windy rains, first flurries north.

• Severe Weather: Reduced overall, but late-October and November fronts still need watching.

In the Midwest, La Niña doesn’t always dominate fall in the way it dominates winter. Instead, its influence is subtle: cooler Pacific waters tend to tug the storm track north and west early, before letting deeper troughs dig south later in the season. This often translates to quieter early autumns and stormier Novembers.

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Other Contributing Factors

• PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation): Strongly negative → favors alternating mild/cool spells.

• Soil Moisture: Southern MO dry → warmer/drier early, less important once big October systems arrive.

• MJO: Tropical pulses could “flip” a 1–2 week wet/cool stretch.

• QBO: More winter player, less influence in fall.

Together, these large-scale factors tilt the scales toward a season that begins warmer and drier than average in September, then grows more active and variable as October and November progress.

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September 2025 – “Lingering Warmth, False Fall Snapshots”

Climatology

• Highs: 85°F → 76°F

• Lows: 66°F → 55°F

• Normal rainfall: ~3.1”

Forecast

• Temperatures: Near to slightly above normal. Upper 70s/low 80s common, with refreshing cool snaps late.

• Precipitation: Near to slightly below normal, especially SE MO.

• Storms: Sept 14–17, Sept 25–28 are frontal rain chances. Severe risk low but not zero.

• Snow: None.

• Frost: Highly unlikely except extreme north valleys.

• Nature’s Signs: Goldenrod blooms, ragweed peaks, early color on dogwoods, geese test flights.

Forecast Discussion

September will feel like two different months. The first half keeps the summer hangover alive — warm days, limited moisture, and dry frontal passages. The back half taps more Canadian air, delivering crisp mornings and windows-open weather. Dry soils in southern Missouri may exaggerate the warmth, but the message is: enjoy this stretch — harvest and outdoor events should go smoothly.

Analog years suggest that September will not feature much in the way of organized severe weather, but there can still be “sleeper” systems. In 2010, a mid-September front produced strong winds and a few hail reports across Missouri despite modest instability. This year’s setup echoes that — not a widespread severe risk, but enough instability and shear during mid-month to keep an eye on.

Atmospheric Setup: In September, the jet stream remains displaced north, often across the Dakotas into the Great Lakes. This keeps the storm track away from Missouri for the first half of the month. By the last 10 days, stronger Canadian highs press southward, pulling the jet with them and sharpening frontal boundaries. With Gulf moisture still sluggish, storms remain weak, but the stage is being set for the volatility to come.

Nature’s Signs Expanded: Goldenrod blooming in fields signals late-summer warmth giving way to shorter days. Ragweed peaks, triggering allergies, right before the first stronger fronts clear the air. Dogwoods turn early red in cool valleys, and geese start staging flights along the Mississippi flyway. These changes mirror the atmosphere’s transition — a subtle but steady reminder the season is shifting gears.

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October 2025 – “Crisp Nights, Color on the Hills”

Climatology

• Highs: 75°F → 64°F

• Lows: 55°F → 42°F

• Normal rainfall: ~3.4”

Forecast

• Temperatures: Near/slightly below normal. Highs mostly 60s/70s, raw 50s late.

• Precipitation: Near normal overall; drier early, wetter late.

• Storms: Oct 22–27, Oct 29–31 — main severe windows.

• Snow: Very low, but stray flurry north of I-70 possible late.

• Frost: Rural valleys Oct 15–25, Metro STL Oct 25–Nov 5.

• Nature’s Signs: Peak color mid-to-late month, deer rut begins, cricket chirps fade.

Forecast Discussion

October opens quietly, favoring cool, dry mornings and mild afternoons. But the jet strengthens by mid-month, and analogs point to late October as the “busy season.” If Gulf moisture returns, lines of storms could bring damaging winds. Otherwise, soaking rains will refresh soil moisture. Expect the first widespread frost outside of cities by the third week, with St. Louis proper running a week later.

Looking back at 1998 and 2016, both featured mild starts to October followed by dramatic shifts later in the month. In 2016, for example, temperatures near 80°F early in the month gave way to widespread frost and several rounds of strong storms after the 20th. That same pattern is possible this year, with the late-October windows standing out as the most likely for severe weather.

Atmospheric Setup: By October, the polar jet begins dipping farther south, and shortwaves ride the northwest flow into the Plains and Midwest. The Gulf of Mexico gradually “reopens” — a key ingredient for late-month storm chances. Canadian high pressure dominates early, but by the 20th, a more active storm track places Missouri and Illinois back into the path of systems that can tap both cool Canadian air and Gulf moisture.

Nature’s Signs Expanded: As nights cool, chlorophyll breaks down in leaves, revealing brilliant reds and oranges across Missouri’s hills. The deer rut begins under crisp mornings, often timed with the season’s first hard frosts in rural valleys. Crickets and katydids go silent, replaced by the crunch of fallen leaves. The natural world aligns with the atmosphere: quieter early, then more turbulent as stronger fronts sweep in.

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November 2025 – “First Freeze, Blustery Storms”

Climatology

• Highs: 59°F → 48°F

• Lows: 41°F → 32°F

• Normal rainfall: ~3.6”

Forecast

• Temperatures: Near normal, but variable: 60s one day, 30s the next.

• Precipitation: Near/slightly above normal. At least two soaking systems.

• Storms: Nov 8–11, Nov 18–21, Nov 24–28 (Thanksgiving week).

• Snow: First flurries possible north by Nov 18–27. STL Metro 10–20% chance of a trace.

• Freeze: Rural areas Nov 5–15; Metro STL Nov 15–25.

• Nature’s Signs: Oaks drop, gardens dormant, snow geese and ducks peak migration.

Forecast Discussion

November is the pivot into winter. Expect sharp swings: a 65° Sunday followed by a 38° Monday. At least one windy, soaking storm is likely in the first half of the month, and Thanksgiving week could feature a disruptive system. The analog set favors a clipper or southern stream system near Nov 24–28, bringing rain to most, but flurries to central/northern Missouri. First hard freeze hits rural areas early to mid-month, metro later.

Analog years back up this variability. In 2005, St. Louis saw highs in the 70s in early November before a Thanksgiving week cold front delivered rain, gusty winds, and the first flakes just north of the metro. 2010 featured a similar late-month storm, underscoring the pattern’s tendency to save its biggest punches for the holiday travel window.

Atmospheric Setup: By November, the subtropical jet strengthens, the polar jet deepens south, and troughs dig into the central U.S. This pattern brings more frequent frontal passages, often every 3–5 days. With soil moisture recharged, each system has more fuel for soaking rains. Cold Canadian highs build in stronger, producing hard freezes across the region. Storms track along the Ohio Valley, clipping Missouri and Illinois with wind, rain, and occasional flurries north of I-70.

Nature’s Signs Expanded: Oaks are among the last to drop leaves, signaling the true close of autumn. Gardens go dormant under frequent frosts. Flocks of snow geese and ducks fill the skies in peak migration, their movements cued by shortening days and the season’s first true cold surges. These natural milestones align with the atmosphere’s transition — the land, water, and sky all preparing for winter’s grip.

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Closing Thoughts

Fall 2025 is shaping up to be what I call a “classic Midwestern fall.” That means you’ll get everything: stretches of mild, beautiful days, the crunch of leaves underfoot, blustery November rains, and maybe even a few surprise flurries north of I-70 before December.

For farmers, September favors harvest progress, while October’s late rains may slow things briefly. For families, football and festivals get plenty of crisp air, but keep a backup plan for the last two weekends of October. For travelers, plan ahead — Thanksgiving week is a notorious storm window in these analog years.

More broadly, this fall continues a trend seen in past weak La Niña years where variability is the rule. Warmth can still sneak in, but sharp cold snaps and strong systems will remind us how quickly the season shifts. Communities should use the quiet early fall to prepare for a more active late stretch.

And finally, remember that fall often sets the stage for winter. If the analogs hold true, the late-season storminess of November may hint at an active early winter pattern. For now, though, enjoy the mix of crisp mornings, colorful foliage, and the occasional windy storm that makes fall in the Midwest unforgettable.

Stay safe, stay prepared, and enjoy the season.

— Dr. Nick