FirstWARN Forecast: March 2025 Outlook

For St. Louis, Columbia, Southeast Missouri & Southern Illinois

Dr. Nicholas Palisch Issued: 3/1/2025

FirstWARN: March 2025 Snow Potential & Weather Outlook

The Battle Between Winter and Spring—Will March Roar or Fade Away Quietly?

March is often called the month of transition, but in reality, it is more like a battleground. Winter is not quite ready to give up, yet spring is aggressively trying to take control. This tug-of-war creates a month known for wild temperature swings, unpredictable storms, and surprise snowfalls, making it one of the most dynamic periods in the meteorological calendar.

In 2025, La Niña conditions will play a significant role in shaping the month’s weather. Typically, a La Niña March favors an active storm track, frequent cold air intrusions, and stronger winds, all of which will influence snowfall potential. But does this mean we will see a March dominated by late-season winter storms, or will spring break through and end winter’s reign? Let’s dive into the details.

Climatology of March: A Month of Extremes

March is known for its unpredictability. One day can bring record warmth, while the next delivers a surprise snowstorm. Historically, March has produced some of the biggest late-season snowfalls as well as early spring severe weather outbreaks.

• Average March Rainfall:

  • St. Louis, MO: 3.2 inches

  • Columbia, MO: 2.9 inches

  • Kansas City, MO: 2.4 inches

  • Springfield, MO: 3.7 inches

  • Cape Girardeau, MO: 4.2 inches

  • Perryville, MO: 3.9 inches

  • Farmington, MO: 3.8 inches

  • Carbondale, IL: 3.8 inches

  • Chicago, IL: 2.7 inches

• Average March Snowfall:

  • St. Louis, MO: 2.4 inches

  • Columbia, MO: 2.8 inches

  • Kansas City, MO: 3.4 inches

  • Springfield, MO: 1.9 inches

  • Cape Girardeau, MO: 1.5 inches

  • Perryville, MO: 2.2 inches

  • Farmington, MO: 2.0 inches

  • Carbondale, IL: 2.5 inches

  • Chicago, IL: 5.6 inches

• Record March Snowfall:

  • St. Louis, MO: 20.4 inches (1906)

  • Columbia, MO: 20.6 inches (1960)

  • Kansas City, MO: 24.4 inches (1960)

  • Springfield, MO: 18.0 inches (1970)

  • Cape Girardeau, MO: 13.0 inches (1960)

  • Perryville, MO: 15.4 inches (1960)

  • Farmington, MO: 14.8 inches (1960)

  • Carbondale, IL: 14.0 inches (1960)

  • Chicago, IL: 23.6 inches (1926)

• Average March High/Low Temperatures:

  • St. Louis, MO: 57°F / 38°F

  • Columbia, MO: 56°F / 36°F

  • Kansas City, MO: 53°F / 33°F

  • Springfield, MO: 58°F / 36°F

  • Cape Girardeau, MO: 58°F / 37°F

  • Perryville, MO: 56°F / 35°F

  • Farmington, MO: 55°F / 34°F

  • Carbondale, IL: 57°F / 35°F

  • Chicago, IL: 47°F / 31°F

Historical March Extremes in Missouri & Illinois

March has a long history of producing wild weather in the Midwest. Some of the biggest snowstorms on record have occurred during this time, often catching people off guard as they expect warmer spring weather.

• March 24-25, 2013: A late-season blizzard dumped over a foot of snow across Missouri and Illinois, reminding residents that winter does not leave quietly.

• March 11-14, 1993: The infamous "Superstorm of 1993" impacted much of the eastern U.S., but parts of Missouri and Illinois saw blizzard conditions as well.

• March 6-7, 2017: A major severe weather outbreak brought multiple tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds to the region, proving that March is just as capable of producing thunderstorms as it is snowstorms.

March 2025 Snowfall Potential: What the Pattern Suggests

Influence of La Niña on March Snowfall

With La Niña conditions firmly in place, we expect:
✔ A stronger northern storm track, keeping cold air in play for parts of the month.
✔ A more active jet stream, meaning frequent storm systems moving through.
✔ Windier conditions, as March is already known for its gusty nature.
✔ Temperature swings, with warmups quickly followed by brief cold intrusions.

This pattern increases the potential for at least one or two accumulating snow events, particularly in northern and central Missouri as well as central Illinois.

Snowfall Setup: When and Where Snow is Most Likely

✔ Early to Mid-March

• The first two weeks of March historically have a better chance of producing accumulating snow, particularly when cold air lingers.

• Fast-moving clipper systems could bring light accumulations of one to three inches, especially in northern areas.

• A stronger storm system moving through the Midwest could bring a rain-to-snow event, where warm air dominates early but transitions to snow on the backside.

✔ Late March

• The latter half of the month usually leans more toward rain and thunderstorms, but history has shown that even late-season snowstorms can occur.

• A perfect example is March 24-25, 2013, when a late-month winter storm dumped over a foot of snow across Missouri and Illinois.

✔ Biggest Snow Threat: The "Wrap-Around" Snow Event

• One of the most common ways March brings snow is through a wrap-around effect, where a strong storm system pulls in colder air on the backside.

• This type of setup can lead to wet, heavy snow that accumulates quickly, especially if temperatures are just above freezing.

March Folklore and Weather Lore

March is a month filled with old sayings and folklore related to weather transitions:

✔ "In like a lion, out like a lamb."

• If March starts with stormy, winter-like conditions, the month is expected to end on a quieter, milder note.

• If the opposite happens, March could begin mild and end with a late-season winter storm.

✔ "A dry March and a wet May? Fill barns and bays with corn and hay."

• March precipitation trends can sometimes hint at how the growing season will unfold.

✔ "So many mists in March you see, so many frosts in May will be."

• This saying warns that a misty March could indicate a frosty late spring.

✔ The "Spring Ahead" Shift

• Daylight Saving Time begins on March 9, pushing sunset later and signaling the seasonal shift toward spring.

• The Spring Equinox arrives on March 20, officially marking the start of astronomical spring.

Final Thoughts: Will March 2025 Be More Winter or More Spring?

✔ Snow is Still in Play: While March does not bring prolonged winter cold, it can still deliver surprise snowstorms, especially in the first half of the month.
✔ Late-Season Snow Events Can Happen: Even if temperatures are trending warmer, a single strong system can change rain to snow, leading to brief but significant accumulations.
✔ More Wind Than Winter: March is often one of the windiest months of the year, thanks to the strong jet stream overhead.
✔ Severe Weather Season Begins: As winter loses its grip, severe weather season will ramp up, especially in late March.

Final Snowfall Prediction for March 2025

• Northern Missouri & Central Illinois: One to four inches of total snowfall, likely in quick-hitting systems or rain-to-snow events.

• Kansas City & St. Louis: A trace to three inches, depending on storm tracks and cold air availability.

• Southern Missouri & Southern Illinois: Snowfall will be minimal, with a greater risk of wintry mix and freezing rain.

Bottom Line: Winter is fading, but it is not gone yet. While March 2025 may not bring widespread heavy snow, expect at least one last gasp of winter before spring fully takes over.

As always, stay tuned to FirstWARN Weather for updates on any potential late-season snow events!