First Warn Weather Forecast
Friday, April 25, 2025
St. Louis | Central Missouri | Southeast Missouri | Southern Illinois

Morning storms, then gradually drying
Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across eastern Missouri into southwest Illinois, fueled by low-level moisture ahead of an 850mb low. This feature will shift east through mid-morning, taking the bulk of the rain with it. However, lingering instability and an approaching mid-level trough may allow for scattered showers or storms to redevelop this afternoon. Expect chances around 20–40% through early evening. The higher-resolution models, including the HRRR, suggest rain could persist into late afternoon before drying out tonight.

Cooler air returns for Saturday
A cold front, currently draped across the Missouri-Iowa border, will slide south today, bringing cooler and drier air behind it. Highs will still climb into the 70s—possibly near 80 in southern parts of the area—before cooler air arrives tonight. Expect overnight lows to dip into the 50s, and Saturday will feel noticeably different with highs only in the low to mid 60s. It’ll be breezy at times but dry, thanks to a ridge building in from the west.

Sunday brings scattered showers and a warming trend
After a quiet Saturday, another weak disturbance may bring spotty showers or a few thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday. Rain chances will range from 20–40%, and much of the region will remain dry. Despite the passing clouds, temperatures will rebound into the 70s by Sunday afternoon, signaling the start of a significant warm-up.

Monday could challenge record highs
Warm, moist air surges back into the region on Monday under strong south winds and partial sunshine. Forecast highs in the upper 80s could come close to daily records across central and eastern Missouri. While the daytime hours look mostly dry, thunderstorms will begin to develop to our west by late afternoon and into the evening, particularly across northern Missouri and eastern Kansas. Some of these storms may move into our region overnight.

Tuesday could bring severe weather
Tuesday remains the most concerning day in the forecast. A powerful upper trough and surface low will drag a cold front through the region. Strong wind shear and sufficient instability are expected to be in place, especially across northeast Missouri, central Illinois, and the Ohio Valley. While details are still coming into focus, the potential exists for damaging winds, large hail, and possibly tornadoes. Current guidance from the SPC includes a 15% risk area, and ensemble models are supporting the environment for rotating storms. We’ll be monitoring this closely throughout the weekend as confidence grows.

Unsettled midweek with additional storm chances
Even after the cold front moves through Tuesday, additional disturbances may keep our pattern active. Several models show the front stalling and additional waves riding along it, keeping rain and storm chances in play Wednesday and Thursday, particularly across southern Missouri and Illinois. Highs will trend cooler behind the front, generally in the low to mid 70s through the middle of next week.

Bottom line
Rain and a few rumbles today will give way to a cooler Saturday. Then it’s all eyes on Monday’s warmth and Tuesday’s potential severe weather event. Now’s the time to stay weather aware and check back often for updates.